I can't really discern anything from the picture. From the pattern of the drain piping in the crawlspace, you should be able to figure out which is which. If you determine that this is the toilet, than the wax ring is the first place to start. When you remove the toilet to replace the wax ring, scrape the old wax off and take a close look at the flange that the toilet mounts on. These can rust away, or break, and cause leaks.